Predictive Programming: 1984-2000

Beverly Hills Cop, Rain Man, and how Bill Clinton ambassadored in A Whole New World.

This is the fourth in a five-part series comparing election year winners to the #1 films of that year. Read: 1924–1940, 1944–1960, 1964–1980, 2004-2024.

The anatomy of a box office hit is a little like a Megazord, Voltron, or other Frankenstein-like apparatus, wherein the independently-operated parts add up to an unstoppable whole. The process begins with the generation of an idea, be it from producer, writer, or other such participant—but I talk enough about ideas elsewhere. Our focus is on what happens when the movie comes out, how it goes from an option on an opening weekend to a generation-defining cultural phenomenon, and how we might come to understand that the audience’s choice of what to watch and an electorate’s decision for its next leader aren’t all that different.

The first pillar is marketing, which often begins the moment a movie is announced, and continues well through both the production period and initial release. From the moment the trades tell you (by way of well-paid PR engines), Suchandsuch will be teaming up with Soandso for a daring exercise in Thisandthat, the goal is to first make the industry, and then the interested populace, aware that Something Is On Its Way. Compare this to the early rumors and rumblings that x is considering a campaign for y, as filtered through newspapers—the trades of the political industry—and the analogy serves: tremendous sums of money are raised for each, and so begins either production, with the express goal being to get as many people as possible excited to vote or buy a ticket.

Where the movie business has the motion picture, politics’ product is the candidate, upon whose shoulders the campaign rests. This brings us to our second pillar: critics. In the political arena, these take the form of analysts, pundits, and, often, other politicians, and their job is to persuade you, the recipient of either kind of marketing campaign, that their candidate is worth your vote (or $18). I say persuade because, as the arc of history bends towards ever-deepening levels of uncriticality, the relationships between critics and studios, and newsmen and politicians, is less destructive than it is meant to reaffirm your faith in both the vitality of the movie business and the system. Sure, a salient takedown emerges every now and then, but one wonders less and less if it’s in service of Truth or Art than Entertainment and Analytics. In the age of attention farming and intentionally contrarian alignments, a savage hit-piece is often as good, or better, than praise. Defending capeshit because Marty assails it isn’t all that different than endorsing a candidate because Hillary isn’t.

Last but not least, the third pillar is word of mouth, and suffice it to say, in the worlds of movies and politics, the position-haver is king. Trying to avoid last year’s Barbenheimer discourse was as easy as avoiding this year’s Facebook posts from your uncle, but the essence of word of mouth is the same: for studios, and parties, the trick is getting you to do the advertising for them—gratis.

Also free: today’s box office/presidential election comparisons!

1984: Beverly Hills Cop

Reagan (R): 525

Walter Mondale (D): 13

A Black cop bringing his wisecrackin’ Detroit style and indefatigable flair for justice to the palatial vistas of Beverly Hills couldn’t be further from an incumbent White Devil who hated minorities almost as much as the poor winning a second term in a landslide. But the connection between the 1984 election and the $234M Beverly Hills Cop coup is less about what’s in the film than what it represents: the emergence of the hotshot mega-producer. What the rise of heads like Kathleen Kennedy and Hillbilly Elegy-impresario Brian Grazer and the late Don Simpson and partner, crypto-conservative Jerry Bruckheimer mean is that the business is cash-flush, Americans are spending money, and eternal yes-men are gonna keep the car rolling until the brains fall out. One could argue, not only did its success predict a second Reagan term as loudly as it predicted its own sequel, there was a strong likelihood that that sequel would get its own sequel—both BHC3 and a subsequent Republican term. And it did.

Is it Democrat or Republican? 2024 Democrat; sure he’s a cop, but he’s also… a Midwest Princess.

1988: Rain Man

Bush I (R): 426

Michael Dukakis (D): 111

By 1988, Reagan’s popularity was so immense that he considered ending the two-term limit. When that didn’t work, Republicans settled on his VP. Across the aisle, Democrats faced an uphill battle with the undeniably “Massachusetts lib” Michael Dukakis, who Elizabeth Darko was probably right about. Alas, her parents were the ones still sleep-running the country: following two successful debate performances, Bush Senior dominated both the electoral college and the popular vote.

If that was predictable, the winner at that year’s box office, however, seemed to defy all expectations in performance and content: an R-rated hybrid drama about a slick wheeler-dealer (Tom Cruise) discovering, and coming to terms with, his autistic-savant brother (Dustin Hoffman). It didn’t open at #1, but excellent reviews and word-of-mouth elevated it into the year’s biggest movie, garnering Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Original Screenplay. Honestly, I’m having trouble connecting it to politics at all. Great movie.

Is it Democrat or Republican? As Centrist as it gets - Both.

1992: Aladdin

Clinton (D): 370

Bush I (R): 168

Ross Perot (Ind.): 0

After twelve years of Republican rule, a Democratic frontrunner broke through in the form of the Arkansas governor Bill Clinton. Despite immense popularity following his helming of the first war for oil, the elder Bush faced an incontrovertible fact amongst his supporters: he just wasn’t Reagan. The Lolita Express Frequent Flyer, however, hot off an icon-making primary and his first sex scandal, embodied what the incumbent lacked: star power. At the box office, his near-magical ascent from unknown to Sultan was mirrored in that of Disney’s Aladdin. Like the Clinton campaign, the film seemed to do everything right—it looked good, thanks to a crack team of Disney animators in top form; sounded good, thanks to the talents of lyricists Howard Ashman and Tim Rice, and songwriter Alan Menken; and the kids loved it. With VP Al Gore and Hillary his Abu and Carpet, respectively, the only thing missing was Clinton’s Genie. Less like Robin Williams’ Blue Man than the djinn of folklore, what granted Clinton’s wishes three would be much harder to get back in the lamp: globalism.

Is it Democrat or Republican? Democrat as fuck, come on.

1996: Independence Day

Clinton (D): 379

Bob Dole (R): 159

Ross Perot - 0

Like Reagan his second go around, a strong economy bought the incumbent Clinton/Gore ticket an encore. And at the box office, a familiar magic was in the air: the maverick producers of 80s graduated the blockbuster to a science, churning out Mission: Impossible, Scream, andTwister, and the crème de la crème, Independence Day. Roland Emmerich’s star-studded planetary defense fantasia burned with such familiar iconography that its second lead (after rising giant Will Smith) was invited to screen the film for the First Family at the White House. Now, I’m not saying the film was responsible for Bill’s second term, but he could have done a lot worse without everyone in the country watching a guy who looks just like him save the planet. Bob Dole didn’t stand a chance.

Is it Democrat or Republican? It’s what Democrats call Democrat but is really Diet Republican.

2000: How the Grinch Stole Christmas

Bush II (R): 271

Al Gore (D): 266

You might hope a more culturally relevant film would usher in the first year of the new millennium, but a more fitting symbol there isn’t for the dawn of W’s reign. No Scary Movie, no Cast Away, no Gladiator, Perfect Storm, nor Meet the Parents, but a live-action adaptation of Dr. Seuss’s children’s Christmas novella about an embittered viridescent racketeer whose plunder is his victims’ raison d'etre: not Big Dick Cheney, but the Grinch! As a kid, this was probably the movie that turned me off of Jim Carrey (though his ‘04–’05 Eternal Sunshine/Series of Unfortunate Events/Fun with Dick and Jane run briefly brought me back). In my opinion, as an 8-year-old, it was too mean-spirited and stupid, and here’s where the real predictive programming comes in: when the Grinch steals Christmas, nearly all the Whos down in Whoville just roll over and let him. So when the Republicans usurped the election, who did we expect would come and save us? Cindy Lou Who?

Is it Democrat or Republican? Before doing 9/11, Bush stole Christmas.

Monday: We conclude our series with the box office and election winners of 2000–2024, and use our data to predict the outcome of Kamala v. Trump.