Predictive Programming: 1944-1960
Spartacus, The Ten Commandments, and what the box office says about who we pick for president.
This is the second in a five-part series comparing election year winners to the #1 films of that year. Read: 1924–1940, 1964–1980, 1984–2000, 2004–2024.
If you look up “predictive programming” on Wikipedia, you’ll find some nerd shit that’s largely incoherent for all but the most STEM-addled among us. That’s because they don’t want you to know about the real predictive programming, a conspiracist’s bread and butter, which should be largely incoherent for all but the most regular-addled, like me (and now you).
Basically, the idea is that popular media is littered with symbols and secret messages that inure the masses to the upcoming horrors the demoniac élites have up their exquisitely form-fitting sleeves. “9/11? Check out the expiration date on Neo’s driver’s license,” for example. Whereas the fluffiest sheeple among ewe might baa that’s just coincidence, the refined pattern recognizer traces the plot to destabilize America all the way back to the art department assistant tasked with making the prop. His name? Jeffrey Epstein. Just kidding.
So when it comes to predicting the outcome of an (allegedly) neck-and-neck race to 270, the answers are obviously in the cards (if by “cards” we mean #1 movies at the box office during election years).
Yesterday, we looked at how musicals solidified the reign of FDR and vaudevillian blackface tied into the ol’ party switcheroo. Today, we dive into what accursed ballet flats, broken tablets, and, fittingly, the circus, have to do with who votes for whom. Join us (or die).
1944: Going My Way
Franklin D. Roosevelt (D): 432
Thomas E. Dewey (R): 99
The epitome of “tonic delight,” Leo McCarey’s singing dramedy about an unconventional new priest (Bing Crosby) revitalizing a down-on-its-luck parish hit all the right notes, garnering seven Academy Awards including Best Picture. Nearly four years into their front, Americans united by the war effort seemingly found their analogue in the story of a charming newcomer who does a whole lot of good—but on his own terms. At the ballot box, this was four-times confirmed: although in poor health, FDR remained popular as ever, and the addition of Missouri senator Harry S. Truman lent a reinvigorating robustness to a ticket that now faced its greatest challenge in the form of moderate Republican and anti-Mafia crusader Thomas E. Dewey. Less than three months into his fourth term, FDR’s death would set the stage for Truman’s ascent and fiery conclusion to WW2. In its dramatic Christmas Eve climax, the church of Going My Way goes up in flames, but the parishioners gather to pray and sing and dream of rebuilding the world to come. Sound like anyone?
Is it Democrat or Republican? Despite the Christian values at its core, the film applies them in a community-minded way, rather than as pretext for retarding children and lynching doctors. I’m gonna have to go with Democrat.
1948: Red River
Harry S. Truman (D): 303
Dewey (R): 189
Strom Thurmond (States’ Rights): 39
This one’s a toughie because not only was it a hotly contested race, different box office aggregators seemed to differ on the highest grossing movie of the year. The first source I double-checked considered it to be The Red Shoes, Powell and Pressburger's handsomely mounted ballet fairytale, which did, in fact, make the most money for a film released in 1948. A record-breaking British export, however, the film’s domestic gross actually accounts for 1948–1950, meaning there’s one film from 1948 that did better in just 1948. That source incorrectly lists it as the Bing Crosby/Bob Hope musical comedy Road to Rio, which came out in 1947, followed by MGM’s Technicolor Judy Garland/Fred Astaire musical, Easter Parade. But even the highest grossing musical of the year was no match for the 1948’s true numero uno: Red River, Howard Hawks’s epic Western fictionalization of the first cattle drive along the legendary Chisholm Trail.
A mean, blood-soaked, cowboys&indians fantasia, the John Wayne/Montgomery Clift two-hander shares a lot in common with then-incumbent Truman’s surprising feat. Largely unpopular for his interventionist approach to foreign policy and beset upon by both a liberal from the east and the party secessionist Strom Thurmond of the Deep South, many projected a summary and decisive victory for New York Governor Dewey. But fiery rhetoric and the help of a threadbare campaign film solidified the incumbent’s stature at the eleventh hour, and, like Wayne at the end of the film, Truman white-knuckled his way to one of the greatest upsets in election history.
Is it Democrat or Republican? A cowboy movie where John Wayne lives? Spiritually Republican for sure.
1952: The Greatest Show on Earth
Dwight D. Eisenhower (R): 442
Adlai Stevenson II (D): 89
Like its winning candidate, 1952’s biggest movie won by a long shot at the box office, nearly tripling the gross of the next best-performing movie (worldwide). A spectacle of production and personnel—the movie, I mean—Cecil B. DeMille’s blockbuster drama sees the Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circus navigating a turbulent postwar economy from the perspective of the performers, including aerialists, animal tamers, and Jimmy Stewart as a clown on the run for euthanizing his wife (prior to running away and joining the circus, natch). Meanwhile, in Washington, five-star Army general Eisenhower and running mate, the young “Tricky” Ricky (Nixon), were mounting their own circus of sorts: a broad-tiered coalition based on Eisenhower’s enormous wartime popularity that even managed to wrest back support of Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. That a circus manager and an Army chieftain getting their respective shows on the road were the winners that year is a testament to the art imitates life:life imitates art dialectic.
Is it Democrat or Republican? In this economy??? A film that delves into the daily experiences and rich inner lives of workers is, sadly, neither.
1956: The Ten Commandments
Eisenhower (R): 457
Stevenson II (D): 73
The rematch of 1956 was a second rout for Eisenhower, this time of biblical proportions: not only did the incumbent trounce his opponent nearly six times over, he made important inroads amongst White Southerners who, previously, had voted largely Democrat (it wasn’t until the next election that party alignments flip-flopped to what we have today). His opponent, however, former Illinois governor Adlai Stevenson II, advocated for a reallocation of military spending towards social welfare, still inexplicably a losing position today. Nay, what drew voters to the ballot box and moviegoers to the box office was might, and, in a sense, the story of Moses delivering his people from Egypt to receive the Commandments at Mount Sinai accurately reflects the collective spirit of the mid-fifties U.S.A.: what gave us the power to beat the Axis and liberate Europe was the simple fact that we had God on our side.
Is it Democrat or Republican? Charlton Heston bringing the hammer of Yahweh down on idolaters and heathens is decidedly Republican.
1960: Spartacus
JFK (D): 303
Nixon (R): 219
Here’s where it gets flippy-floppy: with the adoption of the 22nd Amendment barring Ike from running again, and the additions of Alaska and Hawaii as voting states, it was anyone’s election to win. For VP Nixon, it was a matter of staying the course, riding the wave of support his party had established over the last eight relatively stable years. But for Massachusetts’ young senator, John F. Kennedy, new blood required a new strategic approach: registering new voters en masse, and focusing on swing states. Here’s where screen stories and history intersect: Stanley Kubrick’s film, scripted by the then-blacklisted Dalton Trumbo, tells the story of a slave rebellion so powerful it came to threaten Rome. Meanwhile, Kennedy’s support, in large part through the endorsement of Reverend Martin Luther King Jr.’s father, came to represent the growing power and consolidation of Black voters, most of whom were the descendants of slaves themselves (a-ha!). In the end, Kennedy won by the skin of his teeth, off fewer states but more electoral votes, and by a .17% margin in the popular vote.
One year later, President JFK would cross the picket lines to watch Spartacus and help end the Hollywood Blacklist. And two years after that, his brains would paint the asphalt over Dealey Plaza. So much for threatening Rome.
Tomorrow: We continue to chart the connection between the box office and the ballot as we compare the winners of 1964–1980.